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in press / in review / in revision

Blois, J.L., Williams, J.W., Fitzpatrick, M.C., Ferrier, S., Veloz, S., He, F., Liu, Z., Manion, G., and B. Otto-Bliesner (in press, Ecography). Modeling the climatic drivers of vegetation compositional dissimilarity since the Last Glacial Maximum.

2012

Williams, J.W.., Ordonez, A., Notaro, M., Veloz, S., and Vimont, D.J. (2012). Climatic analogs, climate velocity, and potential shifts in vegetation structure and biomass for Wisconsin under 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Environmental and Economic Research and Development Program, Focus on Energy Madison, WI.

Goring, S.J., Williams, J.W., Blois, J.L., Jackson, S.T., Paciorek, C.J., Booth, R.K., Marlon, J.R., Blaauw, M. and J.A. Christen (2012). Deposition times in the northeastern United States during the Holocene: establishing valid priors for Bayesian age models. Quaternary Science Reviews 48:54-60

Parker, N.E. and Williams, J.W. (2012). Influences of Climate, Cattle Density, and Lake Morphology on Sporormiella Abundances in Modern Lake Sediments in the U.S. Great Plains. The Holocene 22:475-483

Veloz, S., Williams, J.W., Vimont, D. J., Vavrus, S., Lorenz, D. J. & Notaro, M. (2012). Identifying climatic analogs for Wisconsin under 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Climatic Change 112: 1037-1058

Schwartz, M. W., J. J. Hellmann, J. McLachlan, D. F. Sax, J. o. Borevitz, J. Brennan, A. E. Camacho, G. Ceballos, J. R. Clark, H. Doremus, R. Early, J. R. Etterson, E. D. Fielder, J. L. Gill, P. Gonzalez, N. Green, L. Hannah, D. W. Jamieson, D. Javeline, B. A. Minteer, J. Odenbaugh, S. Polasky, D. M. Richardson, T. L. Root, H. D. Safford, O. E. Sala, S. H. Schneider, A. R. Thompson, J. W. Williams, M. Vellend, P. Vitt, and S. Zellmer. 2012. Managed Relocation: Integrating the Scientific, Regulatory, and Ethical Challenges. Bioscience 62:732-743

Williams, J.W., Kharouba, H. M., Veloz, S., Vellend, M., McLachlan, J., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. & He, F. (2012). The Ice Age Ecologist: Testing methods for reserve prioritization during the last global warming. Global Ecology and Biogeography

Veloz, S., Williams, J.W., Blois, J.L., He, F., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Z. Liu (2012). No-analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late Quaternary: implications for 21st-century predictions by species distribution models. Global Change Biology 18: 1698-1713

Clark, P.U., Shakun, J.D., Baker, P.A., Bartlein, P.J., Brewer, S., Brook, E.J., Carlson, A.E., Cheng, H., Kaufman, D.S., Liu, Z., Marchitto, T.M., Mix, A.C., Morrill, C., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pahnke, K., Russell, J.M., Whitlock, C., Adkins, J.F., Blois, J.L., Clark, J., Colman, S.C., Curry, W.B., Flower, B.P., He, F., Johnson, T.C., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Markgraf, V., McManus, J.F., Mitrovica, J.X., Moreno, P.I., and J.W. Williams (2012). Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109: E1134-E1142

Gill, J.L., Williams, J.W., Jackson, S.T., Donnelly, J.P., and Schellinger, G.C. (2012). Climatic and megaherbivory controls on late-glacial vegetation dynamics: a new, high-resolution, multi-proxy record from Silver Lake, Ohio. Quaternary Science Reviews 34: 66-80.

Brewer S, Jackson S.T. and Williams, J.W. (2012). Paleoecoinformatics: Applying geohistorical data to ecological questions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 27: 104-112

2011

Blois, J.L., Williams, J.W., Grimm, E.C., Jackson, S.T., & Graham, R.W. (2011). A methodological framework for assessing and reducing temporal uncertainty in paleovegetation mapping from late-Quaternary pollen records. Quaternary Science Reviews 30: 1926-1939. M

Williams, J.W., Blois, J.L., Shuman, B. (2011) Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: case studies from the late Quaternary. Journal of Ecology 99:664-677. P

Williams, J.W., Tarasov, P.A., Brewer, S., and Notaro, M. (2011). Late-Quaternary variations in tree cover at the northern forest-tundra ecotone. Journal of Geophysical Research– Biogeosciences 116: G01017.

2010

Notaro, M., Liu, Z., Gallimore, R.G., Williams, J.W., Gutzler, D., and Collins, S. (2010). The complex seasonal cycle of ecohydrology in the southwest United States. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 115: G04034.

Henderson, A.K., Nelson, D.M., Hu, F.S., Huang, Y., Shuman, B.N., and Williams, J.W. (2010). Holocene precipitation seasonality captured by a dual hydrogen and oxygen isotope approach at Steel Lake, Minnesota. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 300: 205-214.

Liu, Y., Jackson, S.T., Brewer, S., and Williams, J.W. (2010). Assessing antiquity and turnover of terrestrial ecosystems in eastern North America using fossil pollen data: A preliminary study. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science OP

Elias, P.M., Menon, G., Wetzel, B.K., and Williams, J.W. (2010). Barrier requirements as the evolutionary "driver" of epidermal pigmentation in humans. American Journal of Human Biology 22: 526-537.

Tabor, K., and Williams, J.W. (2010). Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change. Ecological Applications 20(2):554-565.OP

Williams, J.W., Shuman, B., Bartlein, P.J., Diffenbaugh, N.S. and Webb, T., III (2010) Rapid, time-transgressive, and variable responses to early-Holocene midcontinental drying in North America. Geology 38:135-138. OP S

2009

Gonzales, L.M., Williams, J.W., and Grimm, E.C. (2009). Expanded response surfaces: A new method to reconstruct paleoclimates from fossil pollen assemblages that lack modern analogues. Quaternary Science Reviews 28: 3315-3332.OP

Gill, J. L., Williams, J. W., Jackson, S. T., Lininger, K., and Robinson, G. S. (2009). Pleistocene megafaunal collapse preceded novel plant communities and enhanced fire regimes. Science 326: 1100-1103.OP S. See also the accompanying Perspectives article by Christopher Johnson and listen to the podcast.

Richardson, D. M., J. J. Hellmann, J. McLachlan, D. F. Sax, M. W. Schwartz, J. Brennan, P. Gonzalez, T. Root, O. Sala, S. H. Schneider, D. Ashe, A. Camacho, J. R. Clark, R. Early, J. Etterson, D. Fielder, J.L. Gill, B. A. Minteer, S. Polasky, H. Safford, A. Thompson, and M. Vellend. (2009). Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 9721-9724

Lorenz, D. J., Vavrus, S. J., Vimont, D. J., Williams, J. W., Notaro, M., Young, J. A., DeWeaver, E. T., and Hopkins, E. J. (2009). Wisconsin's changing climate: temperature. Understanding Climate Change: Climate Variability, Predictability, and Change in the Midwestern United States. Edited by S. C. Pryor. Indiana University Press, Bloomington, IN, pp. 76-87.

Lorenz, D. J., Vavrus, S. J., Vimont, D. J., Williams, J. W., Notaro, M., Young, J. A., DeWeaver, E. T., and Hopkins, E. J. (2009). Wisconsin's changing climate: hydrologic cycle. Understanding Climate Change: Climate Variability, Predictability, and Change in the Midwestern United States. Edited by S. C. Pryor. Indiana University Press, Bloomington, IN, pp. 135-144.

Williams, J. W. (2009) Quaternary Vegetation Distributions. Encyclopedia of Paleoclimatology and Ancient Environments. Edited by V. Gornitz. Kluwer Academic Publishers. M.

Williams, J.W, Shuman, B., and Bartlein, P.J. (2009) Rapid responses of the prairie-forest ecotone to early Holocene aridity in mid-continental North America. Global and Planetary Change 66: 195-207 OP D

Gonzales, L.M., Grimm, E.C. (2009) Synchronization of late-glacial vegetation changes at Crystal Lake, Illinois, USA with the North Atlantic Event Stratigraphy. Quaternary Research 72: 234-245 OP

Gonzales, L.M., Grimm, E.C., Williams, J.W, and Nordheim, E.V. (2009) A modern plant-climate research dataset for modeling eastern North American plant taxa. Grana 48: 1-18.

Elias, P.M., Menon, G., Wetzel, B.K., and Williams, J.W. (2009). Evidence that stress to the epidermal barrier influenced the development of pigmentation in humans. Pigment Cell and Melanoma Research 22:420-434.

2008

Gonzales, L.M., Williams, J.W, and Kaplan, J.O. (2008) Variations in leaf area index in northern and eastern North America over the past 21 000 years: A data-model comparison. Quaternary Science Reviews 27: 1453-1466. OP

Williams, J.W., Gonzales, L.M., Kaplan, J.O., (2008) Leaf area index for northern and eastern North America at the Last Glacial Maximum: a data-model comparison. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 122-134. P

Williams, J. W., and Shuman, B. (2008). Obtaining accurate and precise environmental reconstructions from the modern analog technique and North American surface pollen dataset. Quaternary Science Reviews 27: 669-687. OP

Cook, E.R. Bartlein, P. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Seager, R., Shuman, B., Webb, R. S., Williams, J. W., Woodhouse, C. A. (2008) Hydrological variability and change, Abrupt Climate Change, A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.

Minckley, T.A. Bartlein, P. J., Whitlock, C., Shuman, B. N., Williams, J. W., Davis, O. K. (2008) Associations among modern pollen, vegetation, and climate in western North America. Quaternary Science Reviews 27: 1939-2094.

2007

Williams, J. W. and Jackson, S. T. (2007) Novel Climates, No-Analog Plant Communities, and Ecological Surprises: Past and Future. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 5: 475-482. doi:10.1890/070037. OP

Williams, J. W., Jackson, S. T., Kutzbach, J. E. (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104: 5738-5742. OP D S(Powerpoint Slides)

Tarasov, P.E., Williams, J.W., Andreev, A.A., Nakagawa, T., Bezrukova, E., Herzschuh, U., Igarashi, Y., Müller, H. (2007) Satellite- and pollen-based quantitative woody cover reconstructions for northern Asia: verification and application to late-Quaternary pollen data. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 264: 284-298.

2006

Williams, J. W., B. Shuman, P. J. Bartlein, J. Whitmore, K. Gajewski, M. Sawada, T. Minckley, S. Shafer, A. E. Viau, T. Webb, III, P. M. Anderson, L. B. Brubaker, C. Whitlock, and O. K. Davis. (2006). An Atlas of Pollen-Vegetation-Climate Relationships for the United States and Canada. American Association of Stratigraphic Palynologists Foundation, Dallas, TX, 293p. D

Diffenbaugh, N. S., Ashfaq, M., Shuman, B., Williams, J. W., Bartlein, P. J. (2006). Summer aridity in the United States: Response to Mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters 33, DOI: 10.1029/2006GL028012 OP

Seabloom, E. W., Williams, J. W., Slayback, D., Stoms, D. M., Viers, J. H., Dobson, A. P. (2006) Human impacts, plant invasion, and imperiled species in California. Ecological Applications 16: 1338-1350.

Notaro, M., Liu, Z., and Williams, J. W. (2006) Observed vegetation-climate feedbacks in the United States. Journal of Climate 19: 763-786. OP

2005

Kutzbach, J. E., Williams, J. W., and Vavrus, S. J. (2005) Simulated 21st century changes in regional water balance of the Great Lakes region and links to changes in global temperature and poleward moisture transport. Geophysical Research Letters 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023506. OP

Jennings, M. D., Williams, J. W., Stromberg, M. R. (2005) Diversity and productivity across plant communities of the inland northwest, USA. Oecologia 143/144: 607-618. OP

Williams, J. W., Seabloom, E. W., Slayback, D., Stoms, D. M., Viers, J. H. (2005) Anthropogenic impacts upon plant species richness and net primary productivity in California. Ecology Letters 8: 127-137. OP

Whitmore, J., Gajewski, K., Sawada, M., Williams, J. W., Shuman, B., Bartlein, P. J., Minckley, T., Viau, A. E., Webb, T., III, Anderson, P. M., and Brubaker, L. B. (2005). North American and Greenland modern pollen data for multi-scale paleoecological and paleoclimatic applications. Quaternary Science Reviews 24, 1828-1848. OP DP

2004

Jackson, S. T. and Williams, J. W. (2004) Modern analogs in Quaternary paleoecology: Here today, gone yesterday, gone tomorrow? Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 32: 495-537. OP

Webb, T., Shuman, B. N., Williams, J. W. (2004) Climatically forced vegetation dynamics in eastern North America during the late Quaternary period. The Quaternary Period in the United States.  Edited by Gillespie, A. R., Porter, S. C., Atwater, B. F. Elsevier, pp. 459-478. OP

Williams, J. W., Shuman, B. N., Webb, T., III, Bartlein, P. J., Leduc, P.(2004) Quaternary vegetation dynamics in North America: Scaling from taxa to biomes. Ecological Monographs 74: 309-334. OP

Chalcraft, D. R., Williams, J. W., Smith, M. D., Willig, M. R. (2004) Scale dependence in the relationship between diversity and productivity: assessing the role of spatial and temporal turnover. Ecology 85: 2701-2708. OP

2003

Gavin, D. G., Oswald, W. W., Wahl, E. R., Williams, J. W. (2003) A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records. Quaternary Research 60: 356-367. OP

Williams, J. W. and Jackson, S. T. (2003) Palynological and AVHRR observations of modern vegetational gradients in eastern North America. The Holocene 13: 485-497. OP

Williams, J. W. (2003) Needleleaved and broadleaved tree cover distributions in North America since the Last Glacial Maximum. Global and Planetary Change 35: 1-23. OP

2002

Williams, J. W., Post, D. M., Cwynar, L. C., Lotter, A. F., Levesque, A. J. (2002) Rapid vegetation responses to past climate change. Geology 30: 971-974. OP

Shuman, B. N., Webb III, T., Bartlein, P. J., Williams, J. W. (2002) The anatomy of a climatic oscillation: Vegetation change in eastern North America during the Younger Dryas chronozone. Quaternary Science Reviews 21: 1777-1791. OP

2001

Williams, J. W., Shuman, B. N., Webb III, T. (2001) Dissimilarity analyses of Late-Quaternary vegetation and climate in eastern North America. Ecology 82: 3346-3362. OP

2000

Williams, J. W., Webb III, T., Richard, P. J. H., and Newby, P. (2000) Late Quaternary biomes of Canada and the eastern United States. Journal of Biogeography 27: 585-607. OP

Edwards, M. E., Anderson, P. M., Brubaker, L. B., Ager, T., Andreev, A. A., Bigelow, N. H., Cwynar, L. C., Eisner, W. R., Harrison, S. P., Hu, F.-S., Jolly, D., Lozhkin, A. V., McDonald, G. M., Mock, C. J., Ritchie, J. C., Sher, A. V., Spear, R. W., Williams, J. W., and Yu., G. (2000) Pollen-based biomes for Beringia 18,000, 6000, and 0 14C yr. B.P. Journal of Biogeography 27: 521-554.

Williams, J. W., Webb III, T., Shuman, B. N., and Bartlein, P. J. (2000) Do low CO2 concentrations affect pollen-based reconstructions of LGM climates? A response to ‘Physiological significance of low atmospheric CO2 for plant-climate interactions’ by Cowling and Sykes. Quaternary Research 53: 402-404. OP

Williams, J. W., Bartlein, P. J., and Webb III, T. (2000) Data-model comparisons for eastern North America - inferred biomes and climate values from pollen data. Proceedings of the Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Workshop, Oct. 4-8, 1999. Montreal, Canada. Edited by P. Braconnot. WCRP-111, WMO/TD-No. 1007. OP

Jackson, S. T., Webb, R. S., Anderson, K. H., Overpeck, J. T., Webb III, T., Williams, J. W., and Hansen, B. C. S. (2000) Vegetation and environment in eastern North America during the last glacial maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 489-508. OP

pre-2000

Williams, J. W., Summers, R., and Webb III, T. (1998) Applying plant functional types to construct biome maps from eastern North American pollen data: comparisons with model results. Quaternary Science Reviews 17: 607-627. OP

Leduc, P. L., Williams, J. W., and Webb III, T. (1998) Programs for site selection, tabular display, and interpolation of data from Paradox-based pollen databases. INQUA Newsletter 17.

Williams, J. W. (1995) Factors controlling the formation of fossiliferous beds in the Devonian Columbus limestone at Marblehead Quarry, Marblehead, Ohio. Ohio Journal of Sciences 95: 325-330.


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